Economic growth and GDP
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给教育者： 面向 Economic growth and GDP（Economics，The National Economy）的即用型课程幻灯片, 复习笔记——用在你的课堂上，或将该知识点作为学习者可实时游玩的互动课堂活动来运行。
课程笔记
What is economic growth?
- Actual growth means an increase in real output, commonly measured by real GDP. GDP values domestic final production over a period and avoids double counting intermediate inputs. It includes services as well as goods and non-market public services through national-account conventions. Gross means before deducting consumption of fixed capital.
- Nominal GDP uses current prices; real measures remove price-change effects. GDP per capita divides by population. Fictional real GDP £100bn with 10m people gives £10,000; £110bn with 12.5m gives £8,800, so total output rises while output per person falls 12%. Purchasing-power bases help international comparisons, but averages hide distribution.
Choose the GDP measure
The business cycle
- The business cycle describes irregular fluctuations in activity rather than a fixed repeating timetable. Two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP is a common technical-recession rule of thumb, not a universal official definition. A slowdown can mean output is still rising at a lower rate; a contraction means output falls.
- Fictional quarterly real-output indices 100, 103, 102, 101, 102, 104, 105, 106 show two consecutive falls in Q3/Q4. Recovery starts at Q5, but its level 102 is still below the previous 103 peak. Distinguish the level from the growth rate and consider revisions, depth and breadth of a downturn.
Fictional quarterly real-output levels
Causes of growth
- Actual output may rise when stronger spending uses idle resources. Potential capacity can increase through effectively used capital, skills, health, technology and institutions. Trade can provide markets or productive inputs, while shocks can damage resources or confidence.
- Timing, spare capacity, funding, implementation and environmental effects shape results. A demand increase near capacity may mainly increase prices; an investment can fail or take years. More spending or financial-asset purchases alone do not prove an increase in productive capacity.
Actual output and capacity differ
Benefits of growth
- Growth can support higher incomes, employment opportunities and a broader tax base. These gains depend on productivity, hours, job quality and the distribution of income. An increase in output does not guarantee every person gains or unemployment falls.
- Public-service improvements depend on policy and delivery, not tax receipts alone. Evaluate which groups benefit, what changes in real purchasing power and whether the output meets needs. Real GDP per person is useful evidence but not a complete living-standard judgement.
Evaluate possible growth effects
Costs of growth
- Some output growth can add pollution, congestion or depletion and may benefit higher earners disproportionately. These effects depend on technology, composition, institutions and distribution rather than following automatically from any positive growth rate.
- Demand growing faster than capacity can create inflation pressure, while improved supply can support real growth with less price pressure. Environmental intensity can fall while total environmental impact rises if output grows more quickly; evaluate both levels and ratios.
Limits of GDP
- GDP is a production measure rather than a complete welfare measure. Its average hides inequality, most routine unpaid household cooking, cleaning and caring services are excluded, and it does not directly value all leisure, security or environmental damage. Some informal or missing activity is estimated, so it is inaccurate to exclude all informal output by definition.
- GDP can include spending on public health or cleaning up pollution while not capturing the full welfare loss from illness or damage. Use health, education, inequality, access and environmental indicators alongside it. HDI is one broader summary using health, education and GNI per person, but it too masks some differences.
What GDP alone cannot settle
Sustainable growth
- Sustainable growth considers whether economic opportunities can be maintained without undermining the social and environmental foundations future generations rely on. A rise in current output can coexist with asset depletion or damaged health.
- Examine the quality of investment, resource use, emissions, resilience and distribution. Effective technology and policy can reduce harmful impacts, but a fall in impact per unit does not guarantee a fall in total impact. Sustainable development is broader than an annual GDP target.
Assess sustainable opportunities
Nominal and real growth calculation
- Fictional nominal GDP £100bn to £105bn gives 5% nominal growth. With a GDP deflator rising 100 to 103, the simplified real figure is £105bn/(103/100) ≈ £101.94bn on the initial price basis. Real growth is about 1.94%.
- Subtracting 3% from 5% gives a useful small-change approximation of 2%, not the exact answer. Use the appropriate GDP price measure rather than CPI automatically, and keep base periods and units consistent. Official chained-volume estimation is more detailed than this teaching model.
Fictional real-growth calculation
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练习题
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1.What is economic growth?
Easy- Aan increase in real output over time
- Ba fall in output
- Chigher prices
- Dmore unemployment
2.What does GDP stand for?
Easy- Ageneral domestic price
- Bgovernment debt payment
- Cgross demand process
- Dgross domestic product
3.What is real GDP?
Easy- AGDP per person
- BGDP in dollars
- CGDP adjusted for inflation
- DGDP before tax
4.Which is the common technical-recession rule of thumb used in UK discussion?
Easy- Arising GDP
- Btwo consecutive quarters of falling real GDP
- Cone month of falling prices
- Da boom
5.What is a boom?
Easy- Aa period of high economic growth
- Ba recession
- Cunemployment
- Ddeflation
6.What is the business cycle?
Easy- Aa bicycle
- Ba tax
- Ca price
- Dfluctuations in economic activity around its longer-term path
7.What is recovery?
Easy- Ainflation
- Ba tax
- Ca period of rising output after a recession
- Da fall in output
8.Which is a cause of economic growth?
Easy- Atrade restrictions only
- Binvestment in capital and technology
- Cfalling skills
- Dfewer resources
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