Climate change: causes, evidence and responses

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课程笔记

Climate evidence combines instrumental records, ocean and ice changes, sea level and dated proxies. Ice cores preserve past gas composition and provide temperature proxies; they do not directly record tomorrow’s weather.
IPCC AR6 reported global surface warming of about 1.1°C for 2011–2020 compared with 1850–1900. State both periods. This historical average is not a claim about the present year, every region or a single-year Paris threshold.

The greenhouse effect involves absorption and emission of infrared radiation, not a sealed blanket that prevents all energy escaping. Increasing greenhouse gases changes Earth’s energy balance. Human activities, primarily greenhouse-gas emissions, are responsible for recent global warming.
Fossil-fuel combustion and land-use change add CO2; agriculture, landfill and fossil-fuel systems emit methane, while soils and fertilisers can emit nitrous oxide. Water vapour largely amplifies warming as a feedback. Orbital changes influence long-term climate; large eruptions can temporarily cool through stratospheric sulfate aerosols. These do not account for the recent human-driven trend.

Climate change affects heat, rainfall, ecosystems, food and water risks, with different local consequences. Attribution to a specific event requires evidence; one storm or retreating glacier alone is not a complete global analysis.
Sea-level rise includes thermal expansion and land-ice loss. Floating sea-ice melt contributes little directly to sea level. Flood risk also depends on local land movement, tides, storms, exposure and adaptation. Longer frost-free periods can benefit some activities but do not guarantee higher yields or offset all other impacts.

Mitigation reduces emissions or strengthens removals; adaptation manages risks and exposure. Energy efficiency, low-carbon energy, appropriate forestry and durable carbon storage need lifecycle, permanence and land-use evaluation. Flood protection, shade, water conservation and crop choices need local risk assessment.
The Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, seeking warming well below 2°C and pursuing efforts towards 1.5°C above pre-industrial conditions. It concerns long-term global temperature; a single-year anomaly is a different measure. Policy adoption is not proof that every target is achieved.
Both response types need investment and fair access. Adaptation has limits and possible unintended effects; forest carbon can be lost, capture needs durable storage and defences retain residual risk. Evaluate effectiveness, maintenance and distribution rather than promising a risk-free solution.

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