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Conditional Probability

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课程笔记

What is Conditional Probability?

  • A conditional probability is the probability of an event A occurring given that event B has already occurred.
  • It is written as P(A | B), meaning 'probability of A given B'.
  • The probability is calculated from a restricted set of outcomes (only those where B has happened), not from all possible outcomes.
  • For example, picking a multiple of 3 from even numbers {2,4,6,8} gives P(multiple of 3 | even) = 1/4.

Calculating Conditional Probabilities from Tables, Venn Diagrams, and Tree Diagrams

  • Conditional probabilities are often found using two-way tables, Venn diagrams, or tree diagrams.
  • From a Venn diagram: P(A | B) = (number in A∩B) / (number in B).
  • From a two-way table: restrict to the row/column of the given condition, then find the required fraction.
  • Tree diagrams naturally show conditional probabilities along branches (e.g., second draw probabilities change after first draw without replacement).

P(A | B) from a Venn diagram

P(A | B) from a Venn diagramAB7436n(ℰ) = 20

Combined Conditional Probabilities (Without Replacement)

  • When drawing two or more items without replacement, the probability of the second event depends on the outcome of the first.
  • Multiply probabilities along branches: P(A then B) = P(A) × P(B | A).
  • For example, drawing two red marbles from a bag of 4 red and 2 yellow: P(RR) = (4/6) × (3/5) = 12/30 = 2/5.
  • Always adjust the total number of items and the number of favourable items after each draw.

4 red, 2 yellow — without replacement

4 red, 2 yellow — without replacement1st marble2nd marble4/63/52/52/64/51/5RedYellowRed, Red 2/5Red, Yellow 4/15Yellow, Red 4/15Yellow, Yellow 1/15

Using the 'Or' Rule for Multiple Cases

  • When there are multiple ways to achieve a result (e.g., different colour orders), calculate each case separately and add the probabilities.
  • For two items of different colours from a bag of 10 yellow, 6 blue, 4 green: P(different) = P(YB) + P(BY) + P(YG) + P(GY) + P(BG) + P(GB).
  • Alternatively, use 1 − P(same colour) = 1 − [P(YY)+P(BB)+P(GG)].
  • Remember that order matters: YB is different from BY.

10 yellow, 6 blue, 4 green — without replacement

10 yellow, 6 blue, 4 green — without replacement1st bead2nd bead10/209/196/194/196/2010/195/194/194/2010/196/193/19YellowBlueGreenYellow, Yellow 9/38Yellow, Blue 3/19Yellow, Green 2/19Blue, Yellow 3/19Blue, Blue 3/38Blue, Green 6/95Green, Yellow 2/19Green, Blue 6/95Green, Green 3/95

Working with Algebraic Probabilities

  • When the number of items is unknown, use algebra to set up equations.
  • Let the unknown number be a variable (e.g., x blue marbles, x+3 red marbles).
  • Write the probability of the required outcome in terms of x and set it equal to the given probability.
  • Solve the resulting equation (often a quadratic) to find the value of x.

Common Pitfalls and Tips

  • Do not simplify fractions too early; keep a common denominator for easy addition.
  • Read carefully: 'given that' signals a conditional probability.
  • For 'at least one' problems, it is often easier to use 1 − P(none).
  • In tree diagrams, label branches clearly and check that probabilities on branches from the same node sum to 1.

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练习题

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  1. 1.A bag contains 4 red marbles and 2 yellow marbles. Behnaz picks two marbles at random without replacement. What is the probability that both marbles are red?

    Easy
    • A2/5
    • B1/3
    • C4/15
    • D2/15
  2. 2.A bag contains 5 blue marbles and 2 green marbles. Bryn picks one marble at random without replacement. If this marble is not green, he picks another marble at random without replacement. He continues until he picks a green marble. What is the probability that he picks a green marble on his first, second or third attempt?

    Medium
    • A5/7
    • B20/21
    • C1/21
    • D2/7
  3. 3.Bag A contains 3 black balls and 2 white balls. Bag B contains 1 black ball and 3 white balls. A ball is taken at random from each bag. What is the probability that the two balls have different colours?

    Medium
    • A9/20
    • B11/20
    • C1/2
    • D3/10
  4. 4.A group of 200 people were asked which city they would like to visit next. The table shows the results: | City | Frequency | |---|---| | London | 50 | | Paris | 48 | | New York | 56 | | Tokyo | 46 | Two people are chosen at random from the group of 200. What is the probability that one person would like to visit London next and the other person would like to visit New York next? Give your answer as a percentage.

    Medium
    • A14%
    • B28%
    • C7%
    • D56%
  5. 5.The speeds of 200 cars are measured. The table shows frequencies: | Speed, v (km/h) | Frequency | |---|---| | 0 < v ≤ 20 | 16 | | 20 < v ≤ 40 | 34 | | 40 < v ≤ 45 | 62 | | 45 < v ≤ 50 | 58 | | 50 < v ≤ 60 | 26 | | 60 < v ≤ 80 | 4 | Two of the 200 cars are chosen at random. What is the probability that they both have a speed greater than 50 km/h?

    Medium
    • A30/200 × 29/199
    • B30/200 × 30/200
    • C30/200 × 29/200
    • D30/200 × 30/199
  6. 6.Ravi has a bag which contains 10 red balls and 8 blue balls. Ravi takes two balls at random from his bag, without replacement. What is the probability that one ball is red and one ball is blue?

    Medium
    • A80/153
    • B10/18 × 8/17
    • C10/18 × 8/17 × 2
    • D10/18 × 8/17 + 8/18 × 10/17
  7. 7.A box contains 20 packets of potato chips. 6 packets contain barbecue flavour, 10 packets contain salt flavour, 4 packets contain chicken flavour. Maria takes two packets at random without replacement. What is the probability that she takes two packets of salt flavoured chips?

    Easy
    • A9/38
    • B10/20 × 9/19
    • C10/20 × 10/19
    • D1/4
  8. 8.Sonia has a bag containing 20 sweets. In the bag, there are 5 red, 6 green and 9 yellow sweets. Sonia chooses two sweets at random, without replacement, from the bag. What is the probability that she chooses two green sweets?

    Easy
    • A3/38
    • B6/20 × 5/19
    • C6/20 × 6/19
    • D1/19

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